Traders in the $27 trillion Treasury market are betting that long-term bond yields will rise as Donald Trump's chances of winning re-election improve. Investors have been selling longer-dated Treasuries and buying shorter ones after Trump's strong debate performance against Biden. Open interest in this trade rose sharply last Friday and Monday as the gap between 2-year and 10-year yields widened by 13 basis points, the largest two-day move since October.
