Meteorologists predict an 80% chance of at least a moderate El Niño appearing in the Northern Hemisphere by the end of the year, which could disrupt agricultural output and affect commodity prices. El Niño, characterized by warmer-than-normal water moving toward the west coast of the Americas, can disrupt sugar production in Asia, harvests in South America, and mixed impacts in the US with more precipitation in southern states and drier weather in the Plains. Farmers, traders, and speculators are closely monitoring the situation, with some speculators betting on a strong El Niño, injecting volatility into crop markets.
