Satellite observation analysis shows forests are losing stability, with 'profound' global impact
#Climatecrisis #Amazon #rainforesttipping
Data shows the Amazon is approaching a tipping point after which the rainforest will disappear, with a "profound" impact on global climate and biodiversity.
Computer models have previously suggested a possible mass extinction in the Amazon, but the new analysis is based on real satellite observations over the past three decades.
Novel statistical analysis shows that more than 75 percent of primary forests have lost their stability since the early 2000s, meaning it will take longer to recover from droughts and wildfires.
Loss of stability was greatest in areas close to farms, roads and urban areas, and in areas that were becoming drier, suggesting that forest degradation and global warming were to blame. These factors "may have brought the Amazon close to a critical threshold for tropical rainforest dieback," the scientists concluded.
The study does not allow forecasting when a turning point might be reached. However, the researchers caution that if tipping point triggering can be detected, it may be too late to stop triggering tipping point.
Once triggered, tropical rainforests will turn into grasslands within a few decades, releasing huge amounts of carbon and further accelerating global warming.
Planetary-scale tipping points are one of climate scientists' greatest fears because they are irreversible on human timescales. In 2021, the same statistical technique revealed warning signs of a collapse in the Gulf Stream and other major Atlantic currents, "almost completely destabilized over the past century."
Shutting down these currents would have catastrophic consequences globally, disrupting monsoon rainfall and endangering Antarctica's ice sheets.
Another recent study showed that a large portion of the Greenland ice sheet is nearing a tipping point where sea levels will rise by 7 meters over time.
"Many researchers have speculated that the Amazon may reach a tipping point, but our study provides important empirical evidence that we are approaching that tipping point," said Professor Niklas Boers from the Technical University of Munich in Germany.
"It's worrying to see this loss of resistance in the observations. The Amazon rainforest stores a lot of carbon, which could be released even if part of it dies."
The edge of the ice sheet north of Kangerlussuaq, Greenland. Hannibal Hanschke /
Scientists say the Amazon's demise is having "profound ramifications on a global scale". Bulls added: "Amazon i
