내년 경제회복 ‘U자형’ 가능성...코로나 부작용 ‘K자형 회복'으로 빈부격차 더 심화
A once-in-a-generation pandemic crisis has battered the global economy,... devastating the livelihoods of millions.
The South Korean economy was also hit hard and although the economic outlook has brightened with vaccine developments, it's unclear when it will fully recover.
Eum Ji-young has more.
The COVID-19 outbreak has taken an unprecedented toll on the global economy and the South Korean economy is no exception.
The OECD said the South Korean economy will contract one-point-one percent this year.
Oddly enough, it's the strongest performance among the 37 OECD member countries,…mainly thanks to South Korea's economic relief policies as well as its ability to curb the spread of the virus.
Major economic organizations forecast the growth rate for the South Korean economy in 2021 to range between two-point-five to three-point-three percent.
Among the various shapes of economic recoveries, Seoul's Vice Finance Minister said earlier this month that the government plans to achieve a V-shaped recovery with a strong and quick rebound.
"It is our goal to quickly restore damaged sectors and help people get back to normal economic activity. People call this a V shaped recovery."
But rather than V, many experts point to a U shaped recovery for the South Korean economy, which entails more gradual growth than the V shape as uncertainties lie ahead.
"I would say U shaped recovery at a slower speed than expected would be a stand by practically starting from 2021."
But many others say there could be a K-shaped recovery.
That means various sectors recover at different speeds, and more advanced economies and bigger companies recover faster.
"Inequality will worsen between economies with faster rebounds and those with sluggish recoveries. It will also become more serious between sectors that have benefitted from the 4th industrial revolution and those that have not. And the gap between the rich and poor will also widen."
The Bank of Korea said there could be a so-called 'jobless recovery' next year as the service sector, with its usual face-to-face interaction, and a sector which is key to a healthy employment market, was hit especially hard in 2020 and that trend is forecast to extend deep into 2021 as well.
Eum Ji-young Arirang News.
