Will President Trump win a second term, or will there be a new face in the Oval Office,... and what can we expect with the 2020 election exactly one year away?
To find out, Arirang TV spoke with an expert with an unrivalled ability to forecast the winner... for his analysis on what promises to be a blockbuster race.
Yoon Jung-min has details.
With the U.S. presidential election just one year away,... key factors for predicting the next president are based on the strength and performance of their party.
That's according to Professor Allan Lichtman from American University,... who has predicted the last nine U.S. presidential elections from 1984 through 2012.
Lichtman says his predictions are based on 13 factors,... including the economy, foreign policy, social unrest and a third party.
When asked about the latest impeachment inquiry against President Donald Trump,... the professor says it could be a factor that affects the upcoming election.
"Particularly if things go badly in a Senate trial. So, while I'm not ready to make a final prediction, by finally doing what is right...morally, constitutionally and indeed politically, the democrats have at least put themselves in a much better position to win next year."
Lichtman says there's not much to predict from the ideology or experience of the candidates,... but the public needs to pay attention to the performance of the administration, including foreign policy.
However, he says, there has not been much success on foreign policy for the Trump administration so far.
"The killing of al-Baghdadi was hardly noticed in the U.S. Most Americans didn't know who he was. And on the other hand, I would say, the policy in Syria, which was denounced even by Republicans, the withdrawal, the handing over Syria in effect to Iran, al-Assad and Russians,... could well be a foreign policy failure."
The professor went on to say the election also depends on the success or failure of the economy,... and whether the Democrats emerge with a charismatic figure who can attract voters.
Yoon Jung-min, Arirang News.
