증시 대담
It's time now on this Tuesday to get an in-depth look at the global markets, and for that I'm joined on the line by Mr. Daniel Yoo, global strategist at Kiwoom Securities.
Thanks for coming on today, Mr. Yoo.
You're welcome.
Markets were closed here in Korea on Monday for a holiday, but in China stocks plunged on signs that China and the U.S. might not be so close to a deal after all. The Shanghai Composite down 5-and-a-half percent. Hong Kong down a lot as well. What's happening there?
Trump threatened in tweets Sunday to raise tariffs on $200 billion in Chinese goods to 25% and add 25% tariffs to other $325 billion in other goods. This rattled the market.
Yesterday, Chinese market fell over 5% in worries of the deal not going through.
Chinese negotiators still plan to attend talks in Washington this week, and Chinese Vice Premier Liu will attend. It was not clear until after Monday's market close that the vice premier would attend, and analysts saw that as a positive sign for the talks.
We believe the deal will be struck within 1H2019.
We had seen oil prices rising, but that has moderated in recent days to a significant degree. It looks like they're trying to find their level now. Where do you see oil prices going?
Oil price rise is definitely negative news for Korea. It is estimated that 10% increase in oil price reduces 0.4% of GDP. Particularly given that Korea is manufacturing based and export oriented economy, stable oil price is very important.
Recent oil price rise was because Rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran buoy oil prices, as Washington deploys a carrier strike group and a bomber task force to the Middle East.
Crude futures earlier touched a one-month low after U.S. President Donald Trump said he may raise tariffs on Chinese goods. This lead to oil price falling near 60 dollars
Oil price should remain stable at 60~65 dollars because of paradigm shift that occurred due to shale gas revolution. US continue to be the main supplier of oil to the world. Market share #1. Trump wants to keep the price constant as lower production cost in US will bring more production plants into US. This is very important factor to win against China trade dispute.
With the dollar strengthening, the Korean won is at its weakest in two years. That means Korea's foreign currency reserves are down by more than a billion dollars in a month. What's ahead this week that might have an effect on exchange rates?
There are various reasons behind the won weakness.
Economic growth rate 1Q only 1.8%. Much lower than global average of 3% plus.
Interest rate cut might be necessary to boost domestic economy.
More aggressive fiscal policy is necessary to boost the economic growth rate above 2.5%
Also, Chinese RMB depreciated to 6.78 level after the Trump tweet.
Most important event will how the US China trade talk will end this week.
We need to watch very carefully of this to see how the market will move in the future.
Alright, that's where we'll h
