Investing.com - The new Federal Reserve chairman may soon be facing an old quandary-- how to raise interest rates to counter rising crude oil prices without triggering a recession. Jerome Powell's chances of success, however, are not good. History shows that every recession since the early1970s has been preceded by a spike in energy prices and Fed rate hikes to contain the inflation that comes with it.Oil prices soared in 1973, 1979, 1990, 1999 and in 2008, when crude hit a record high of almost $150 a barrel. In each case, the Fed raised interest rates 2.00% or more, and a recession followed.This time around is slightly different. Some of the Fed's six interest rate hikes since December 2015 came while oil prices were subdued. In mid 2017, however, prices began a sharp rebound that has accelerated in 2018.Thus far, the Fed's rate hikes total 1.50 percentage points. But with two -- some say three -- more quarter-point increases expected in 2018, the Fed will cross the 2.00% threshold sometime in the second half of this year. If oil prices, which are already up 20% this year, continue to rise, as many now predict, economists say a recession is likely, sooner if not later.
