The House passed its version of the Republican tax overhaul Thursday, notching a key win for President Trump and House Speaker Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.). But obstacles remain in the Senate, which is refining its own version of the legislation amid objections from key GOP senators.
The bill passed with 227 votes in favor and 205 against. Thirteen Republicans voted against the bill. No Democrats voted for it.
Trump and Republican leaders in Congress are aiming to pass a bill that would cut taxes by as much as $1.5 trillion by the end of the year. Both the House and Senate bills deliver the majority of the cuts to businesses and wealthy Americans, but there are significant differences between the bills that will have to be resolved.
Trump visited the Capitol shortly before the early-afternoon vote, speaking to Republican lawmakers behind closed doors to urge them to support the cornerstone of his economic agenda.
Trump's parting words to Republicans, according to a person in the room who was not authorized to comment publicly: "I love you. Now go vote."
Even before the vote, GOP leaders were confident that the pep talk wasn't necessary. Fewer than a dozen of the 240 House Republicans said they were opposing the bill or had lodged strong objections, as of Wednesday morning. The GOP could have lost up to 22 votes and still passed the bill Thursday.
"There's not a lot of minds to change in there," said Rep. Tom Cole (R-Okla.)
Cole said that Trump's remarks were upbeat and packed with one-liners and that the president did not include the type of threats he delivered when he visited lawmakers ahead of a crucial health-care vote.
Trump thanked party leaders, expressed optimism about the Senate bill and said he believed that Congress ought to move to "welfare reform" after completing the tax bill, according to several members in the room who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss the private meeting. He also mentioned his trip to Asia, including his efforts to free several UCLA basketball players accused of shoplifting in China, the members said.
On Wednesday, House Majority Whip Steve Scalise (R-La.) the vote count was "looking real good" after weeks of working with individual members to explain the plan and address objections that ranged from the parochial to the fundamental.
"I think most people know how important it is to cut taxes and get the economy moving again, and this bill does that," he said.
House Republicans, however, voted on the bill with key questions unanswered.
Trump and GOP leaders have long claimed that their plan will create economic growth that will offset the bill's $1.5 trillion revenue cut, negating any long-term impact on the national debt.
House Ways and Means Committee Chairman Kevin Brady (R-Tex.) told reporters last month that "dynamic scores" of the tax plan, taking economic growth into account, would be available before a floor vote. But neither the Joint Committee on Taxation nor the Trump administration has released any analysis showing whether the GOP's economic claims are viable.
One optimistic study of an earlier iteration of the House bill, by the conservative-leaning Tax Foundation, found that it would, in fact, create 890,000 jobs and marginally increase wages and growth over the long term. But that would offset only a portion of the bill's total cost, adding roughly $1 trillion to the budget deficit over the long term.
The House bill delivers more than 80 percent of its overall cuts to corporations, business owners and wealthy families who are subject to the federal estate tax, according to estimates released by the Joint Committee on Taxation, Congress's nonpartisan tax analyst. But most middle-class Americans would see an immediate tax cut because of a lowering of individual tax rates, the near-doubling of the standard deduction and a larger child tax credit.
But many households that itemize their deductions — taking advantage of write-offs for state income taxes, medical expenses, and more — could see immediate tax increases. In future years, the benefits of the bill for individuals wane because of the phaseout of a key tax credit and the use of a slower measure of inflation to recalibrate bracket levels.
It remains unclear whether the final tax bill will resemble anything like what the House passed Thursday. A Senate version of the bill, titled the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act, contains major differences — including a controversial repeal of the Affordable Care Act's mandate that individuals purchase health insurance.
That provision would save the government about $300 billion over the next decade as it paid out less in insurance subsidies for low- and middle-income Americans, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office. The change would also, according to the CBO, result in 13 million more Americans going without coverage.
The Senate bill also takes a considerably different approach to the taxation of multinational corporations, as it phases
